Winston Churchills Quote Analysis Essays - Democracy,

Winston Churchill's Quote Analysis Winston Churchills Quote on Democracy Many forms of government have been tried and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others that have been tried from time to time. - Winston Churchill, 1947. This quote represents the views of Winston Churchill, the former Prime Minister of Great Britain, not only on democracy, but on government as a whole. By this quote Churchill meant that democracy is not perfect, and no government created so far is. Every form of government no matter how successful it is has flaws. According to Websters Dictionary the definition of government is: 1 : a government by the people; esp : rule of the majority 2 : a government in which the supreme power is held by the people. Democracy cannot function without the people, especially if the people are ignorant, ill- informed, or only care about their own interests. Building an effective democracy takes time, the people must be educated to make effective and well-informed decisions. This is one reason why democracy is failing in Russia, and one of democracys flaws. Democracy is also a very slow process; the checks and balances that help make democracy effective also makes it inefficient. Before a law is passed it spends a great deal of time in the hands of officials in Congress, and even in the hands of the president. Democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until a majority of voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse out of the public treasury.- Alexander Tyler. While this quote is not completely realistic, the idea behind it is very true. It is often said that democracy is just a tyranny of the majority. This can seem true at times, because the thoughts and ideas of a minority are not always fairly represented. In fact in a few ways a dictatorship has advantages over democracy its more efficient. A dictatorship is a very efficient form of government, and so is a oligarchy, but in those governments it can be very difficult for the views and opinions of the people to be heard. For these reasons democracy is the most just system of government thus far. Democracy works because even though the leaders of a nation are not always the wisest people, they know that they can loose their power just as quickly as they gained it if the people do not approve of what theyre doing. A Democratic society is not in any way utopian and no one pretends it is, but no society yet has been perfect, and that is thought behind Winston Churchills quote. Basically Churchill means that while democracy isnt perfect, nothing is and so far its the best form of government we have. Government

Engel V. Vitale essays

Engel V. Vitale essays The year is 1962, and the Supreme Court is about to make a landmark ruling, concerning the constitutionality of faculty lead prayer in school. Democratic President John F. Kennedy is in his second year of his term. Many Americans saw the Kennedy administration as a liberal Presidency that was moderately pro-civil rights, and suspected that some changes would come during this term. The civil rights movement had been gaining more ground in ten years than it had in the past fifty. The landmark court decision Brown v. The Board of Education (1954) had outlawed public education segregation. Yet in 1957, the U.S. Armies 101st Division had to be brought in to desegregate Little Rock, Arkansas highschool to allow nine black teenagers to be educated in the predominantly white facility. So schools in the United States had been experiencing significant change before the Engel ruling. In 1962, the U.S. was still engaged in a bitter arms-race against the Soviet Union, with barely a year passing since the U.S.S.R. had successfully detonated a nuclear bomb. Tensions between the two countries had already been intensifying, particularly over the issue of Cuba. Cuba, just ninety miles south of the Florida coast was controlled by Communist dictator Fidel Castro. To the U.S., Cubas relations with the U.S.S.R. was perceived to be an escalating threat to U.S. security. In February of 62, the U.S. announced a trade embargo on all Cuban products and travel. Cuba was not happy with the U.S. either before or after. On April 17, 1961, a botched attempt to invade Cuba, later named the Bay of Pigs left Cuba immensely distrusting of its northern neighbor. While over in Europe, western relations with the Soviet Union greatly degraded because of the erection of the Berlin wall in August, 1961. With the possibility of a nuclear war against the last two superpowers, the majority of Americans felt it was their duty to line up behi...

Discover The Marriage Proposal by Anton Chekhov

Discover The Marriage Proposal by Anton Chekhov Anton Chekhov is known for brilliant, full-length plays, yet in his younger years he fancied writing short, one-act comedies like The Marriage Proposal. Filled with wit, irony, and brilliantly developed and impassioned characters, this three-person play shows the young playwright at his best. The Comedies of Anton Chekhov Anton Chekhovs full-length masterpieces may be considered comedies, yet they are filled with dour moments, failed loves, and sometimes even death. This is especially true in his play The Seagull a comedic drama which ends with a suicide. Although other plays such as Uncle Vanya and The Cherry Orchard do not culminate in such an explosive resolution, a feeling of hopelessness permeates each of Chekhovs plays. This is a sharp contrast to some of his more jovial one-act comedies. The Marriage Proposal, for example, is a delightful farce that could have ended very darkly, but the playwright instead maintains its energetic whimsy, concluding in a successful albeit combative engagement. The Characters of A Marriage Proposal The main character, Ivan Vassilevitch Lomov, is a heavy-set man in his mid-thirties, prone to anxiety, stubbornness, and hypochondria. These flaws are further amplified because he becomes a nervous wreck when he tries to propose marriage. Stepan Stephanovitch Chubukov owns land next to Ivan. A man in his early seventies, he gladly grants permission to Ivan, but soon calls off the engagement when an argument over property ensues. His chief concerns are maintaining his wealth and keeping his daughter happy. Natalya Stepanovna is the female lead in this three-person play. She can be jovial and welcoming, yet stubborn, proud and possessive, just like her male counterparts. Plot Summary of A Marriage Proposal The play is set in the  rural countryside of Russia during the late 1800s. When Ivan arrives at the home of the Chubukov family, the elderly Stepan assumes that the well-dressed young man has come to borrow money. Instead, Stepan is pleased when Ivan asks for his daughters hand in marriage. Stepan whole-heartedly bestows his blessing, declaring that he already loves him like a son. The old man then leaves to fetch his daughter, assuring the younger man that Natalya will graciously accept the proposal. While alone, Ivan delivers a soliloquy, explaining his high level of nervousness, as well as a number of physical ailments that have recently plagued his daily life. This monologue sets up everything that unfolds next. Everything is going well when Natalya first enters the room. They chat pleasantly about the weather and agriculture. Ivan attempts to bring up the subject of marriage by first stating how he has known her family since childhood. As he touches upon his past, he mentions his familys ownership of the Oxen Meadows. Natalya stops the conversation to clarify. She believes that her family has always owned the meadows, and this disagreement ignites a caustic debate, one that sends tempers flaring and Ivans heart palpitating. After they yell at each other, Ivan feels dizzy and tries to calm himself down and change the subject back to matrimony, only to get immersed in the argument yet again. Natalyas father joins the battle, siding with his daughter, and angrily demanding that Ivan leave at once. As soon as Ivan is gone, Stepan reveals that the young man has planned to propose to Natalya. Shocked and apparently desperate to be married, Natalya insists that her father bring him back. Once Ivan has returned, she tries to bend the subject toward romance. However, instead of discussing marriage, they begin to argue over which of their dogs is the better hound. This seemingly innocuous topic launches into yet another heated argument. Finally, Ivans heart cannot take it anymore and he flops down dead. At least thats what Stepan and Natalya believe for a moment. Fortunately, Ivan breaks out of his fainting spell and regains his senses enough for him to propose to Natalya. She accepts, but before the curtain falls, they return to their old argument regarding who owns the better dog. In short, The Marriage Proposal is a delightful gem of a comedy. It makes one wonder why so much of Chekhovs full-length plays (even the ones labeled as comedies) seem so thematically heavy. The Silly and the Serious Sides of Chekhov So, why is The Marriage Proposal so whimsical whereas his full-length plays are realistic? One reason that may account for the silliness found in this one-act is that The Marriage Proposal was first performed in 1890  when Chekhov was just entering his thirties and still in relatively good health. When he wrote his famous comedy-dramas his illness (tuberculosis) had more severely affected him. Being a physician, Chekhov must have known that he was nearing the end of his life, thereby casting a shade over The Seagull and the other plays. Also, during his more prolific years as a playwright, Anton Chekhov traveled more and beheld many impoverished, marginalized people of Russia, including inmates of a penal colony. The Marriage Proposal is a humorous microcosm of marital unions among the Russian upper class in late 19th century Russia.   This was Chekhovs world during his late 20s. As he became more worldly, his interests in others outside the middle classes increased. Plays such as Uncle Vanya and The Cherry Orchard feature an ensemble of characters from many different economic classes, from the wealthiest to the most impoverished. Finally, one must consider the influence of Constantin Stanislavski, a theater director who would become one of the most important figures in modern theater. His dedication to bringing a naturalistic quality to drama may have further inspired Chekhov to write less silly plays, much to the chagrin of theater-goers who like their comedies broad, loud, and full of slapstick.

Commentary on Accounting Ratios Research Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Commentary on Accounting Ratios - Research Paper Example This means newer businesses will generally have lower ROCE as compared to older businesses due to the depreciated amount of its assets. Additionally, the number of years that both Dairy Crest and its close competitor have been in business is unclear. The revenue of Dairy Crest is up by almost 20% in 2008, resulting in Operating Profit Margin of 6%. This result is on par with its competitor. However, the improvement may have been attributed by the twofold increase in Dairy Crest's other income, of which the breakdown has not been disclosed. Given the equal result, it can be said that the competitor may be new in the market since its ROCE is way lower than that of Dairy Crest. In fact, the company's Gross Margin Profit is down from 4.6% in 2007 to only 3.9% in 2008, whereas its competitor's is 25.7%. Looking at Dairy Crest's consolidated income statement, its operating cost is up by almost 21% while its revenue increased only by about 20%. Also, there may be some differences in the pricing strategy adopted by the two companies, which explains the big gap in the margin. The company's Asset Turnover Ratio is slightly better at 1.8 times in 2008, while its competitor is at 1.9 times. The higher revenue in 2008 means Dairy Crest is utilising its assets more. Assuming its competitor is new in the business, this result shows Dairy Crest is not performing as well as its competitor. It appears that Dairy Crest has better control of its stocks with a drop in its Stock Turnover of 38.6 days in 2008 against 43.1 days in 2007. As food stocks are perishable items, it is advisable not to hold them for too long. Dairy Crest's move to bring its stock holding period down by 10% is wise. While its competitor holds stocks 46 days in 2008, it is unclear if this is due to uncertainty in suppliers, as the high levels seem unnecessary based on industry. The Current Ratio of Dairy Crest in 2008 is 1.4, an improvement from 1.0 in 2007. This shows the company's financial position is healthier. However, its competitor's Current Ratio of 0.8 in 2008 seems risky, as

Nursing research Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Nursing research - Essay Example According to World Health Organization (2009), breast milk is the perfect natural food for babies. According to this article, breast milk is composed of carbohydrates, fats, and proteins that are perfectly mixed appropriate for the development of physiology in babies. Breast milk according to this article, contains protective substances that provide the baby with immunity to diseases. This article shows that during the early stages of the life of the baby, breast milk meets virtually all the nutrients required by the baby and there is no other fluid including water is required noting that breast milk is composed of 88% water which is enough to satisfy the thirst of an infant. This article summarized research showing that infants need to be breastfed exclusively for the first six months. This article indicates that those babies who are exclusively breastfed for period of six months have on average 8.6 times lower risks of the diarrheal illness. In this same article it is recommended t hat breastfeeding should continue along with the solid food introduction such as complimentary feeding for not less than 23 months. This implies according to this study that the minimum period that is needed to adequately nourish a growing child is 2 years though some parents might wish to continue with breastfeed for a period beyond this. Moreover, the article recommends that breast milk provide at least 50 percent of calories for a child between 6 and 12 months of age, and one-third of calories between 12 and 24 months of age. According to Arifeen et al (2005) deaths that occur due to diarrhea and pneumonia can be reduced by one third among the infants if infants were to be exclusively rather than partially breastfed for a period of the first four months. Unfortunately, 35 percent of infants are exclusively breastfed for a period of six months. According to this article, breastfeeding, as well confers long term and intermediate benefits on both the mother and the child which inclu des aiding in protecting the child against various acute and chronic disorders. This article indicate that at 6 months of age, increased energy demand of an infant begin to exceed the amount of energy that is provided by the breast milk and that is the time to start introducing foods. Arifeen et al (2005 noted that it might not be proper for a mother to continue breastfeeding exclusively beyond this point. This study indicated that the breastfeeding process needs to be proceeded on demand throughout the entire complimentary feeding period. This is said so because breast milk often provide higher quality of nutrients as compared to the complimentary foods. Moreover, breast milk is a protective factor guarding against childhood diseases and it helps in reducing on the risks of chronic diseases that might come later in life. In this article, the author indicated that at six months of age, the increased energy needs of the infant start to exceed the energy provided by breast milk, so th at’s the time to begin to introduce foods.   It is not okay to continue to breastfeed exclusively at this point.  At the same time, breastfeeding should still continue on-demand throughout the complementary feeding period (up to 2 years of age) (Arifeen et al, 2005).   Breast milk continues to provide higher quality nutrients than complementary foods, and also protective factors that guard against childhood illness and reduce the risk of chronic diseas

Reflections on the Black Race Essay Example for Free

Reflections on the Black Race Essay That the issue of Obama’s racial background is much talked about in terms of his fitness for the US presidency only proves this: that we Americans have a long way to go in our pursuit of adherence to the ideals of our declaration of independence. After all the document held the fundamental equality of people, and everyman’s inalienable rights, to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. The declaration did not favor any race in the universality of its coverage. So how come some people have raised the specter of doom for America once the black mestizo Obama wins the US presidency? How come a Democrat lawyer is doggedly pursuing, ostensibly as a matter of principle—that Barack Obma is not a â€Å"natural born American† and is therefore unqualified to run for the presidency of the United States. The Democrat lawyer claimed his motivation was his loyalty to the US constitution. (Refer to the You Tube citation in the reference below for this item). But Surname 2 one can sense a certain ferocity in his campaign that didn’t seem to jibe with his claimed adherence. The dramatic performance of this Democrat lawyer complete with reciting his monologue with the Philadelphia edifice in his background is obviously a public relations stunt of a deeply rooted racist. This theatrics however considerably lost its mantle after a considered US statesman and former Secretary of State—the full-blooded Republican Mr. Powell— endorsed Mr. Obama, making sure he stood for principle in supporting Mr. Obama. Mr. Powell was also bothered by the way his own Republican camp was hitting the dirt in their campaign of hatred against the black American Democratic candidate. (Refer again to the You Tube citation in the reference. ) Mr. Powell finally called for â€Å"a generational change†, and coming as it did from a senior Republican – for a long time, an unprecedented bipartisanship Mr Powell raised a very important gesture of statesmanship and concern for American welfare. (You Tube). . In his book Dreams from my Father, Obama in the first 20 pages described a life that started as a young mind, clueless on the lifetime struggle that was to be on his shoulders as a black mestizo. He described Kansas, as the dab-smack, landlocked center of the country, a place where decency and endurance and the pioneer spirit were joined at the hip with conformity and suspicion and the potential for unblinking cruelty. (p. 13). Take note of his analogy of the metaphorical duality of his environment when he described Kansas as a place of decency, endurance, and (pioneering) spirit on the upper side, joined in the hip with such negative traits as conformity, suspicion, and the potential for Surname 3 unblinking cruelty†¦ This fairly balanced assessment of his origins recognized the fundamental decency of the American people , but also noted the attitudinal duality to racial origins in his country of birth. In this book Obama explored the pervasive racial issues that he encountered in life, from childhood, to college, and by now he must have realized—to the present, when as the Democrat candidates, he stood on the threshold of American presidency. Despite this stature, he was still grappling with the race issue. As a young man, Obama was unmindful of the thought â€Å"(that )my father looked nothing like the people around me — that he was black as pitch, my mother white as milk. † (p. 16) It was an infinitely harder life for the common blacks. In Obama’s case he only started to become aware of the weight of his racial identity as he grew up. Obama as a black did not come from the underprivileged, but from a relatively middle class environment. Compared to what Obama went through, Brent Staples now tells us that ordinary blacks suffered even harsher environments. Consoling blacks, he reminded them of the historical movement toward their freedom. They came from a country that barely a few decades ago was absolutely racist, a virtual apartheid which situation started to collapse only after World War II. Staples said that only after the collapse did blacks start to move out of their sequestered world and into colleges, jobs, and walks of life that had been closed to them until then. Surname 4 Still, black Americans who came from successful, suburban and upwardly mobile families were regularly dismissed as white or inauthentic . In other words, Brent Staples also blamed blacks for wanting to further marginalize themselves and to inflict on themselves a marginalized status. â€Å"The authentic black experience, it was said at the time, was limited to the hard-core, impoverished upbringing that black people often chose to brag about, even when they had actually grown up with private prep schools in the lap of luxury,† was Brent’s assessment of the black mentality of the 60s. In other words, even Obama was unacceptable to these blacks because he was not authentically â€Å"black† in the poverty side of the issue. But another Republican Alan Keyes dished out another execrable crap when he opposed Mr. Obama in the Illinois Senate race back in 2004 saying Mr. Obama was not black because â€Å"he was not descended from slaves. † Clearly both black and whites think of blacks as having to be miserable in order to qualify for this racial group. The self-image of this group seems to be one that perpetually deprecates itself as always coming from the bottom. Mr. Obama himself, a would-be president of the United States has experienced the existential problem of how it is to be black in the world’s most prosperous country. In his book Obama disclosed how he coped with life as a black in a society dominated by whites. As Staples explains it: â€Å"He stumbled onto the mysteries of race in his own good time and pursued them in his own way. His quest took him to an impoverished community on the South Surname 5 Side of Chicago, where he worked as an organizer in an infamous public housing project before discovering his vocation as a politician. † And Staples sees hope that this division would soon be resolved with a greater understanding of the multiplicity of experiences among marginalized peoples in any society. Said he: â€Å"†¦ The hue and cry over Barack Obama’s identity stems from a failure by black traditionalists to recognize multiracial versions of themselves. Soon enough, perhaps by year’s end, however, the Obama story, which seems so exotic to so many people now, will have found its place among all the other stories of the sprawling black diaspora. † Surname 6 Works Cited Obama, Barack. Dreams of My Father. US: Three River Press, 1995,pp. 1-20. Staples, Brent. Decoding the Debate Over the Blackness of Barack Obama. (2007) The Editorial Observer. Retrieved October 19. 2008 from: http://files. meetup. com/427541/Blackness%20of%20Barack%20Obama%20. doc You Tube campaign against Obama . Retrieved Oct. 21, 2008. http://sayanythingblog. com/entry/a_video_that_could_change_the_election/

Elizabeth Barrett Brownings Poetic Style Essays -- Essays Papers

Elizabeth Barrett Browning's Poetic Style Elizabeth Barrett Browning's poetry has been the subject of much criticism. Her elusive style prompted many critics to question Barrett's method of writing. In fact, some critics, like Alethea Hayter, go so far as to propose that an "honest critique of her work must admit that she often wrote very bad poetry indeed" (15). Accusations against Barrett's work were often targeted at her tendency for anonymity, her excessive development of thoughts, unsuccessful forced rhymes, and more often than any other of her familiarities, her tendency to create her own words. Despite being relatively shunned by the world of poetry, Barrett persisted in writing poetry, even though the majority of her writing time just might have been spent on defending her work rather than writing it. John Forster has remarked, "She uses all her thoughts and feelings for whatever she does. The art of knowing what to leave out she has not attained"(19). In defense of her work Barrett writes in a letter to her husband, Robert Browning, "I do not say everything I think (as has been said of me by master-critics) but I take every means to say what I think"(19). Hayter recognizes that Barrett's work was surely not lacking revision, but was the product of constant reconsideration. She was said to have revised after every printing. For Barrett, the main focus of revising was to iron out metre, find perfectly fitting words for her lines, and to produce literature that read with the movement of natural speech. However, Hayter admits that this consistent going over of her work to find "just the right word" was what weakened Barrett's work and formed it into rather exhaustive explanations of what she purposed to convey to her re... ...of women's talk Arose and fell and tossed about a spray Of English S's, soft as a silent hush, And, not withstanding, quite as audible As louder phrases thrown out by men"(26). Saintsbury, who earlier criticized Barrett's rhyming technique, confessed that her ear for metre was, in fact, wonderful (24). Elizabeth Barrett Browning was one of the braver literary pioneers. Choosing to utilize the vocabulary she favored rather than submit to the harsh criticisms of those who held the power to make or break her is an applaudable novelty about her. Many writers, having been successful in their literary exploits, are susceptible to accusations that their work was catered to critics. Surely, this cannot and should not be said of Elizabeth Barrett Browning. Works Cited Donaldson, Sandra, Critical Essays on Elizabeth Barrett Browning; G.K. Hall & Co., New York, NY.

Budget Process

A. THE BUDGET PREPARATION PROCESS OBJECTIVES OF BUDGET PREPARATION During budget preparation, trade-offs and prioritization among programs must be made to ensure that the budget fits government policies and priorities. Next, the most cost-effective variants must be selected. Finally, means of increasing operational efficiency in government must be sought. None of these can be accomplished unless financial constraints are built into the process from the very start. Accordingly, the budget formulation process has four major dimensions:1 †¢Setting up the fiscal targets and the level of expenditures compatible with these targets. This is the objective of preparing the macro-economic framework. †¢ Formulating expenditure policies. †¢ Allocating resources in conformity with both policies and fiscal targets. This is the main objective of the core processes of budget preparation. †¢ Addressing operational efficiency and performance issues. This chapter focuses on the core processes of budget preparation, and on mechanisms for aggregate expenditure control and strategic allocation of esources. Efficiency and performance issues are discussed in chapter 15. Operational efficiency questions directly related to the arrangements for budget preparation are discussed in Section D below. B. THE IMPORTANCE OF A MEDIUM-TERM PERSPECTIVE FOR BUDGETING The need to address all three objectives of public expenditure management–fiscal discipline, strategic resource allocation, and operational efficiency—is emphasized in chapter 1. This calls for a link between policy and budgeting and for a perspective beyond the immediate future.Of course, the future is inherently uncertain, and the more so the longer the period considered. The general trade-off is between policy relevance and certainty. At one extreme, government â€Å"budgeting† for just the following week would suffer the least uncertainty but also be almost irrelevant as an instrument of po licy. At the other extreme, budgeting for a period of too many years would provide a broad context but carry much greater uncertainty as well. 2 In practice, â€Å"multiyear† means â€Å"medium-term,† i. e. , a perspective covering three to five years including the budget year.Clearly, the feasibility in practice of a multiyear perspective is greater when revenues are predictable and the mechanisms for controlling expenditure well- developed. (The U. K. , for example, has recently moved beyond a multiyear perspective to an outright three-year budget for most budgetary accounts. ) These conditions do not exist in many developing countries. 3, The dilemma is that a multiyear perspective is especially important in those countries where a clear sense of policy direction is a must for sustainable development, and public managers are often in sore need of some predictability and flexibility. The dilemma that a multiyear perspective is especially needed where it is least feas ible cannot be resolved easily, but must not be ignored. On the one hand, to try and extend the time horizon of the budget process under conditions of severe revenue uncertainty and weak expenditure control would merely lead to frequent changes in ceilings and appropriations, quickly degenerate into a formalistic exercise, and discredit the approach itself, thus compromising later attempts at improvement.On the other hand, to remain wedded to narrow short-term â€Å"management† of public expenditure would preclude a move to improved linkage between policies and expenditures. In practice, therefore, efforts should constantly be exerted to improve revenue forecasting (through such means as relieving administrative or political pressures for overoptimistic forecasts), and strengthen the linkages between policy formulation and expenditure, as well as the expenditure control mechanisms themselves. As and when these efforts yield progress, the time horizon for budget preparation ca n and should be lengthened. Because revenue-forecasting mprovements and the strengthening of policy-expenditure links and expenditure control mechanisms are important in any event, efforts to achieve these can yield the double benefit of improving the short-term budget process at the same time as they permit expanding the budget time horizon to take account of developmental priorities. Therefore, although in almost all countries government budgets are prepared on an annual cycle, to be formulated well they must take into account events outside the annual cycle, in particular the macroeconomic realities, the expected revenues, the longer-term costs of programs, and government policies.Wildavsky (1986, p. 317) sums up the arguments against isolated annual budgeting as follows: short-sightedness, because only the next year’s expenditures are reviewed; overspending, because huge disbursements in future years are hidden; conservatism, because incremental changes do not open up lar ge future vistas; and parochialism, because programs tend to be viewed in isolation rather than in comparison to their future costs in relation to expected revenue. Specifically, the annual budget must reflect three paramount multiannual considerations: The future recurrent costs of capital expenditures; †¢ The funding needs of entitlement programs (for example debt service and transfer payments) where expenditure levels may change, even though basic policy remains the same; †¢ Contingencies that may result in future spending requirements (for example government loan guarantees (see chapter 2). A medium-term outlook is necessary because the time span of an annual budget is too short for the purpose of adjusting expenditure priorities and uncertainties become too great over the longer term.At the time the budget is formulated, most of the expenditures of the budget year have already been committed. For example, the salaries of permanent civil servants, the pensions to be pa id to retirees, debt service costs, and the like, are not variable in the short term. Other costs can be adjusted, but often only marginally. The margin of maneuver is typically no more than 5 percent of total expenditure. This means that any real adjustment of expenditure priorities, if it is to be successful, has to take place over a time span of several years.For instance, the government may wish to switch from blanket provision of welfare services to targeted provision designed for those most in need. The expenditure implications of such a policy change stretch over several years, and the policy therefore can hardly be implemented through a blinkered focus on the annual budget. Medium-term spending projections are also necessary to demonstrate to the administration and the public the desired direction of change.In the absence of a medium-term program, rapid spending adjustments to reflect changing circumstances will tend to be across-the-board and ad hoc, focused on inputs and a ctivities that can be cut in the short term. (Often, these are important public investment expenditures, and one of the typical outcomes of annual budgeting under constrained circumstances is to define public investment in effect as a mere residual. ) If the expenditure adjustments are not policy-based, they will not be sustained.By illuminating the expenditure implications of current policy decisions on future years’ budgets, medium-term spending projections enable governments to evaluate costeffectiveness and to determine whether they are attempting more than they can afford. 5 Finally, in purely annual budgeting, the link between sectoral policies and budget allocations is often weak. Sector politicians announce policies, but the budget often fails to provide the necessary resources. However, two pitfalls should be avoided. First, a multiyear expenditure approach can tself be an occasion to develop an evasion strategy, by pushing expenditure off to the out-years. Second, i t could lead to claims for increased expenditures from line ministries, since new programs are easily transformed into â€Å"entitlements† as soon as they are included in the projections. To avoid these two pitfalls, many developed countries have limited the scope of their multiyear expenditures estimates to the cost of existing programs, without making room for new programs. †6 Three variants of medium-term year expenditure programming can be considered: †¢A mere â€Å"technical† projection of the forward costs of ongoing programs (including, of course, the recurrent costs of investments). †¢ A â€Å"stringent† planning approach, consisting of: (i) programming savings in nonpriority sectors over the planned period, to leave room for higherpriority programs; but (ii) including in the multiyear program ongoing programs and only those new programs that are included in the annual budget currently under preparation or for which financing is certain. Such plans include only a few new projects beyond their first planned year (e. g. the Public Investment Program prepared in Sri Lanka until 1998). †¢ The â€Å"classic† planning approach, which identifies explicitly new programs and their cost over the entire period. This includes â€Å"development plans† covering all expenditures, or many public investment programs currently prepared in several developing countries, as well as expenditure plans prepared in developed countries in the 1970s. Where the institutional mechanisms for sound policy decision making and for budgeting are not in place, this approach can lead to overloaded expenditure programs.The feasibility of implementing these different approaches and their linkages with the annual budget depends on the capacity and institutional context of the specific country. However, the annual budget should always be placed into some kind of multiyear perspective, even where formal multiyear expenditure programming is not feasible. For this purpose two activities are a must: (i) systematic estimates of the forward costs of ongoing programs, when reviewing the annual budget requests from line ministries; (ii) aggregate expenditure estimates consistent with the medium-term macroeconomic framework (see section C).It is often objected that estimating forward costs is difficult, especially for recurrent costs of new public investment projects. This is true, but irrelevant, for without such estimates budgeting is reduced to a short sighted and parochial exercise. [Please see attached Figure 4. xls] C. CONDITIONS FOR SOUND BUDGET PREPARATION In addition to a multiyear perspective, sound annual budget preparation calls for making early decisions and for avoiding a number of questionable practices. 1. The need for early decisions By definition, preparing the budget entails hard choices.These can be made, at a cost, or avoided, at a far greater cost. It is important that the necessary trade-offs be made explicitly when formulating the budget. This will permit a smooth implementation of priority programs, and avoid disrupting program management during budget execution. Political considerations, the avoidance mechanisms mentioned below, and lack of needed information (notably on continuing commitments), often lead to postponing these hard choices until budget execution. The postponement makes the choices harder, not easier, and the consequence is a less efficient budget process.When revenues are overestimated and the impact of continuing commitments is underestimated, sharp cuts must be made in expenditure when executing the budget. Overestimation of revenue can come from technical factors (such as a bad appraisal of the impact of a change in tax policy or of increased tax expenditures), but often also from the desire of ministries to include or maintain in the budget an excessive number of programs, while downplaying difficulties in financing them. Similarly, while underestimation of expenditures can come from unrealistic assessments of the cost of unfunded liabilities (e. g. enefits granted outside the budget) or the impact of permanent obligations, it can also be a deliberate tactic to launch new programs, with the intention of requesting increased appropriations during budget execution. It is important not to assume that â€Å"technical† improvements can by themselves resolve institutional problems of this nature. An overoptimistic budget leads to accumulation of payment arrears and muddles rules for compliance. Clear signals on the amount of expenditure compatible with financial constraints should be given to spending agencies at the start of the budget preparation process.As will be stressed repeatedly in this volume, it is possible to execute badly a realistic budget, but impossible to execute well an unrealistic budget. There are no satisfactory mechanisms to correct the effects of an unrealistic budget during budget execution. Thus, across-the- board appropriation â€Å"sequestering† leads to inefficiently dispersing scarce resources among an excessive number of activities. Selective cash rationing politicizes budget execution, and often substitutes supplier priorities for program priorities.Selective appropriation sequestering combined with a mechanism to regulate commitments partly avoids these problems, but still creates difficulties, since spending agencies lack predictability and time to adjust their programs and their commitments. An initially higher, but more realistic, fiscal deficit target is far preferable to an optimistic target based on overestimated revenues, or underestimated existing expenditure commitments, which will lead to payment delays and arrears. The monetary impact is similar, but arrears create their own inefficiencies and destroy government credibility as well. This is a strong argument in favor of measuring the fiscal deficit on a â€Å"commitment basis†, see chapter 6. ) To allevia te problems generated by overoptimistic budgets, it is often suggested that a â€Å"core program† within the budget be isolated and higher priority given to this program during budget implementation. In times of high uncertainty of available resources (e. g. , very high inflation), this approach could possibly be considered as a secondbest response to the situation. However, it has little to recommend it as general practice, and is vastly inferior to the obvious alternative of a realistic budget to begin with.When applied to current expenditures, the â€Å"core program† typically includes personnel expenditures, while the â€Å"noncore program† includes a percentage of goods and services. Cuts in the â€Å"noncore† program during budget execution would tend to increase inefficiency, and reduce further the meager operations and maintenance budget in most developing countries. The â€Å"core/noncore† approach is ineffective also when applied to inves tment expenditures, since it is difficult to halt a project that is already launched, even when it is â€Å"non-core. Indeed, depending on strong political support, noncore projects may in practice chase out core projects. (See chapter 12 for a discussion of public investment programming. ) 2. The need for a hard constraint Giving a hard constraint to line ministries from the beginning of budget preparation favors a shift from a â€Å"needs† mentality to an availability mentality. As discussed in detail later in this chapter, annual budget preparation must be framed within a sound macroeconomic framework, and should be organized along the following lines: †¢A top-down approach, consisting of: (i) defining aggregate resources available for public spending; (ii) establishing sectoral spending limits that fits government priorities; and (iii) making these spending limits known to line ministries; †¢ A bottom-up approach, consisting of formulating and costing sectoral spending programs within the sectoral spending limits; and †¢ Iteration and reconciliation mechanisms, to produce a constant overall expenditure program. Although the process must be tailored to each country, it is generally desirable to start with the top-down approach.Implementation of this approach is always necessary for good budgeting, regardless of the time period covered. The technical articulation of this approach in the context of medium-term expenditure programming is discussed in chapter 13, for the annual budget. 3. Avoiding questionable budgeting practices Certain budgetary practices are widespread but inconsistent with sound budgeting. The main ones are: â€Å"incremental budgeting,† â€Å"open-ended† processes, â€Å"excessive bargaining,† and â€Å"dual budgeting. † a. Incremental budgetingLife itself is incremental. And so, in part, is the budget process, since it has to take into account the current context, continuing policies, and ongoing programs. Except when a major â€Å"shock† is required, most structural measures can be implemented only progressively. Carrying out every year a â€Å"zero-based† budgeting exercise covering all programs would be an expensive illusion. At the other extreme, however, â€Å"incremental budgeting,† understood as a mechanical set of changes in a detailed line-item budget, leads to very poor results.The dialogue between the Ministry of Finance and line ministries is confined to reviewing the different items and to bargaining cuts or increases, item by item. Discussions focus solely on inputs, without any reference to results, between a Ministry of Finance typically uninformed about sectoral realities and a sector ministry in a negotiating mode. Worse, the negotiation is seen as a zero-sum game, and usually not approached by either party in good faith. Moreover, incremental budgeting of this sort is not even a good tool for expenditure control, although this was the initial aim of this approach.Line-item incremental budgeting focuses generally on goods and services expenditures, whereas the â€Å"budget busters† are normally entitlements, subsidies, hiring or wage policy or, in many developing countries, expenditure financed with counterpart funds from foreign aid. Even the most mechanical and inefficient forms of incremental budgeting, however, are not quite as bad as capricious large swings in budget allocations in response to purely political power shifts. b. â€Å"Open-ended† processes An open-ended budget preparation process starts from requests made by spending agencies without clear indications of financial constraints.Since these requests express only â€Å"needs,† in the aggregate they invariably exceed the available resources. Spending agencies have no incentive to propose savings, since they have no guarantee that any such savings will give them additional financial room to undertake new activities. New programs are included pell-mell in sectoral budget requests as bargaining chips. Lacking information on the relative merits of proposed expenditures, the Ministry of Finance is led to making arbitrary cuts across the board among sector budget proposals, usually at the last minute when finalizing the budget.At best, a few days before the deadline for presenting the draft budget to the Cabinet, the Ministry of Finance gives firm directives to line ministries, which then redraft their requests hastily, themselves making cuts across the board in the programs of their subordinate agencies. Of course, these cuts are also arbitrary, since the ministries have not had enough time to reconsider their previous budget requests. Further bargaining then taxes place during the review of the budget at the cabinet level, or even during budget execution. â€Å"Open ended† processes are sometimes justified as a â€Å"decentralized† approach to budgeting.Actually, they are the very opposi te. Since the total demand by the line ministries is inevitably in excess of available resources, the Ministry of Finance in fact has the last word in deciding where increments should be allocated and whether reallocations should be made. The less constrained the process, the greater is the excess of aggregate ministries’ request over available resources, the stronger the role of the central Ministry of Finance in deciding the composition of sectoral programs, and the more illusory the â€Å"ownership† of the budget by line ministries. . Excessive bargaining and conflict avoidance There is always an element of bargaining in any budget preparation, as choices must be made among conflicting interests. An â€Å"apolitical† budget process is an oxymoron. However, when bargaining drives the process, the only predictable result is inefficiency of resource allocation. Choices are based more on the political power of the different actors than on facts, integrity, or res ults. Instead of transparent budget appropriations, false compromises are reached, such as increased tax expenditures, reation of earmarked funds, loans, or increased contingent liabilities. A budget preparation process dominated by bargaining can also favor the emergence of escape mechanisms and a shift of key programs outside the budget. 7 A variety of undesirable compromises are used to avoid internal bureaucratic conflicts—spreading scarce funds among an excessive number of programs in an effort to satisfy everybody, deliberately overestimating revenues, underestimating continuing commitments, postponing hard choices until budget execution, inflating expenditures in the second year of a multiyear expenditure program, etc.These conflict-avoidance mechanisms are frequent in countries with weak cohesion within the government. Consequently, improved processes of policy formulation can have benefits for budget preparation as well, through the greater cohesion generated in the government. 8 Conflict avoidance may characterize not only the relationships between the Ministry of Finance and line ministries, but also those between line ministries and their subordinate agencies.Indeed, poor cohesion within line ministries is often used by the Ministry of Finance as a justification for its leading role in determining the composition of sectoral programs. Perversely, therefore, the all-around bad habits generated by â€Å"open-ended† budget preparation processes may reduce the incentive of the Ministry of Finance itself to push for real improvements in the system. d. â€Å"Dual budgeting† There is frequent confusion between the separate presentation of current and investment budgets, and the issue of the process by which those two budgets are prepared.The term â€Å"dual budgeting† is often used to refer to either the first or the second issue. However, as discussed earlier, a separate presentation is needed. â€Å"Dual budgeting† ref ers therefore only to a dual process of budget preparation, whereby the responsibility for preparing the investment or development budget is assigned to an entity different from the entity that prepares the current budget. â€Å"Dual budgeting† was aimed initially at establishing appropriate mechanisms for giving higher priority to development activity.Alternatively, it was seen as the application of a â€Å"golden rule† which would require balancing the recurrent budget and borrowing only for investment. In many developing countries, the organizational arrangements that existed before the advent of the PIP approach in the 1980s (see chapter 12) typically included a separation of budget responsibilities between the key core ministries. The Ministry of Finance was responsible for preparing the recurrent budget; the Ministry of Planning was responsible for the annual development budget and for medium-term planning.The two entities carried out their responsibilities separ ately on the basis of different criteria, different staff, different bureaucratic dynamics, and, usually, different ideologies. In some cases, at the end of the budget preparation cycle, the Ministry of Finance would simply collate the two budgets into a single document that made up the â€Å"budget. † Clearly, such a practice impedes the integrated review of current and investment expenditures that is necessary in any good budget process. (For xample, the Ministry of Education will program separately its school construction program and its running costs and try to get the maximum resources for both, while not considering variants that would consist of building fewer schools and buying more books. ) In many cases, coordination between the preparation of the recurrent budget and the development budget is poor not only between core ministries but within the line ministries as well. While the Ministry of Finance deals with the financial department of line ministries, the Ministr y of Planning deals with their investment department.This duality may even be reproduced at subnational levels of government. Adequate coordination is particularly difficult because the spending units responsible for implementing the recurrent budget are administrative divisions, while the development budget is implemented through projects, which may or may not report systematically to their relevant administrative division. (In a few countries, while current expenditures are paid from the Treasury, development expenditures are paid through a separate Development Fund. ) The introduction of rolling PIPs was motivated partly by a desire to correct these problems. Thus, the crux of the â€Å"dual budgeting† issue is the lack of integration of different expenditures contributing to the same policy objectives. This real issue has been clouded, however, by a superficial attribution of deep-seated problems to the â€Å"technical† practice of dual-budgeting. For example, dual budgeting is sometimes held responsible for an expansionary bias in government expenditure. Certainly, as emphasized earlier, the initial dual budgeting paradigm was related to a growth model (Harrod-Domar et al) based on a mechanistic relation between the level of investment and GDP growth.This paradigm itself has unquestionably been a cause of public finance overruns and the debt crises inherited in Africa or Latin America from badquality investment â€Å"programs† of the 1970s and early 1980s. The implicit disregard for issues of implementation capacity, or efficiency of investment, or mismanagement, corruption and theft, is in hindsight difficult to understand. However, imputing to dual budgeting all problems of bad management or weak governance and corruption is equally simplistic and misleading.Given the same structural, capacity, and political conditions of those years (including the Cold War), the same outcome of wasteful, and often corrupt, expansion of government s pending would have resulted in developing countries—dual budgeting or not. If only the massive economic mismanagement in so many countries in the 1970s and early 1980s could be explained by a single and comforting â€Å"technical† problem of budgetary procedure! In point of fact, the fiscal overruns of the 1970s and early 1980s had little to do with the visible dual budgeting.They originated instead from a third invisible budget: â€Å"black boxes,† uncontrolled external borrowing, military expenditures, casual guarantees to public enterprises, etc. 10 Public investment budgeting is submitted to strong pressures because of particular or regional interest (the so-called pork barrel projects) and because it gives more opportunities for corruption than current expenditures. 11 Thus, in countries with poor governance, there are vested interests in keeping separate the process of preparing the investment budget, and a tendency to increase public investment spending.H owever, under the same circumstances, to concentrate power and bribe opportunities in the hands of a powerful â€Å"unified-budget† baron would hardly improve expenditure management or reduce corruption. On the contrary, it is precisely in these countries that focusing first on improving the integrity of the separate investment programming process may be the only way to assure that some resources are allocated to economically sound projects and to improve over time the budget process as a whole. 12 By contrast, in countries without major governance weaknesses, dual budgeting ften results in practice in insulating current expenditures (and especially salaries) from structural adjustment. Given the macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts and objectives, the resources allocated to public investment have typically been a residual, estimated by deducting recurrent expenditure needs from the expected amount of revenues (given the overall deficit target). The residual character of the do mestic funding of development expenditures may even be aggravated during the process of budget execution, when urgent current spending preempts investment spending which can be postponed more easily.In such a situation, dual budgeting yields the opposite problem: unmet domestic investment needs and insufficient counterpart funds for good projects financed on favorable external terms. Insufficient aggregate provision of counterpart funds (which is itself a symptom of a bad investment budgeting process) is a major source of waste of resources. Recall that the real issue is lack of integration between investment and current expenditure programming, and not the separate processes in themselves.This is important, because to misspecify the issue would lead (and often has) to considering the problem solved by a simple merger of two ministries—even while coordination remains just as weak. A former minister becomes a deputy minister, organizational â€Å"boxes† are reshuffled, a few people are promoted and others demoted. But dual budgeting remains alive and well within the bosom of the umbrella ministry. When coordination between two initially separate processes is close and iteration effective, the two budgets end up consistent with each other and with government policies, and â€Å"dual budgeting† is no great problem.Thus, when the current and investment budget processes are separate, whether or not they should be unified depends on the institutional characteristics of the country. In countries where the agency responsible for the investment budget is weak, and the Ministry of Finance is not deeply involved in ex-ante line-item control and day-to-day management, transferring responsibilities for the investment budget to the Ministry of Finance would tend to improve budget preparation as a whole. (Whether this option is preferable to the alternative of trengthening the agency responsible for the investment budget can be decided only on a country- specific basis. ) In other countries, one should first study carefully the existing processes and administrative capacities. For example, when the budgetary system is strongly oriented toward ex-ante controls, the capacity of the Ministry of Finance to prepare and manage a development budget may be inadequate. A unified budget process would in this case risk dismantling the existing network of civil servants who prepare the investment budget, without adequate replacement.Also, as noted, coordination problems may be as severe between separate departments of a single ministry as between separate ministries. Indeed, the lack of coordination within line ministries between the formulation of the current budget and the formulation of the capital budget is in many ways the more important dual budgeting issue. Without integration or coordination of current and capital expenditure at line the ministries’ level, integration or coordination at the core ministry level is a misleading ill usion.On balance, however, the general presumption should be in favor of a single entity responsible for both the investment and the annual budget (although that entity must possess the different skills and data required for the two tasks): Where coherence is at a premium, where any consistent policy may be better than several that cancel each other out, where layers of bureaucracy already frustrate each other, and where a single budget hardly works, choosing two budgets and two sets of officials over one seems strange. The keynote in poor countries should be simplicity.Designs for decisions should be as simple as anyone knows how to make them. The more complicated they are, the less likely they are to work. On this basis, there seems little reason to have several organizations dealing with the same expenditure policies. One good organization would represent an enormous advance. Moreover, choosing the finance ministry puts the burden of reform where it should be—in the budget ary sphere. 13 D. THE MACROECONOMIC AND POLICY CONTEXT 1. Macroeconomic framework and fiscal targets a. Importance of a macroeconomic frameworkThe starting points for expenditure programming are: (i) a realistic assessment of resources likely to be available to the government; and (ii) the establishment of fiscal objectives. (There follows, of course, significant iteration between the two, until the desired relationship between resources and objectives is reached. ) As noted earlier, the capacity to translate policy priorities into the budget, and then to ensure conformity of actual expenditures with the budget, depends in large part on the soundness of macroeconomic projections and revenue forecasts.Overestimating revenues leads to poor budget formulation and therefore poor budget execution. (As mentioned earlier, this may sometimes be a deliberate ploy to evade the responsibility for weak budget management and discipline. ) The preparation of a macroeconomic framework is therefore an essential element in the budget preparation process. Macroeconomic projections are not simple forecasts of trends of macroeconomic variables. Projections are based on a definition of argets and instruments, in areas such as monetary policy, fiscal policy, exchange rate and trade policy, external debt policy, regulation and promotion of private-sector activities, and reform of public enterprises. For example, the policy objective of reducing inflation normally corresponds to targets such as the level of the deficit, and the specific instruments can include tax measures and credit policy measures, among others. 14 Projections should cover the current year and a forward period of two to four years. b.Fiscal targets and indicators The establishment of explicit fiscal targets gives a framework for budget formulation, allows the government to state clearly its fiscal policy and the legislative and the public to monitor the implementation of government policy, and, ultimately, makes go vernment politically as well as financially accountable. Fiscal targets and indicators should cover three areas: current fiscal position (e. g. , fiscal deficit), fiscal sustainability (e. g. , debt-, tax-, or expenditure-to-GDP ratios), and vulnerability (e. . , analysis of the composition of the foreign debt). The summary indicator of fiscal position used most commonly is the overall budget deficit on a cash basis, defined as the difference between actual expenditure payments and collected revenues (on a cash basis) plus grants (cash or in kind). 15 The cash deficit is by definition equal to the government borrowing requirements (from domestic or foreign sources) and is thus integrally linked to the money supply and inflation targets and prospects.The deficit is therefore a major policy target to ensure that the budget will be financed in a noninflationary way and without crowding out private investment, while keeping the growth of public debt under control. The cash deficit must always be included in the set of fiscal targets. The cash deficit does not take into account payment arrears and floating debt. In countries that face arrears problems the deficit on a cash basis plus net increase of arrears is also an important indicator, and is very similar (but not necessarily identical) to the deficit on a commitment basis, i. e. the difference between annual expenditure commitments and cash revenues and grants. 16 The IMF Code of Fiscal Transparency requires at least a memorandum reporting arrears, when the country does not use accrual or modified accrual accounting (which would systematically generate reports on overdue accounts; see chapter 10). As discussed in chapter 6, the precise definition of commitment varies from one 17 country to another . Commitments include orders not yet delivered, may concern multiyear contracts, or, in some countries, be only the administrative reservation of appropriations.Therefore, when using the deficit on a commitment basis as fiscal indicator, it is necessary to specify what transactions are included in the expenditures on a commitment basis. This indicator would be meaningless if it includes multiyear commitments and commitments that are merely reservations of appropriations. Moreover, to estimate arrears more accurately, orders not yet delivered should be separated from actual expenditures (â€Å"accrued expenditures,† or â€Å"expenditures at the verification stage†). As discussed in chapters 6 and 10, this requires an adequate accounting system for tracking the uses of appropriations.The primary deficit (on either a cash or a commitment basis) is the difference between noninterest expenditures and revenues and grants. As a target for budget policy, it does not depend on the vagaries of interest rates and exchange rates, and is therefore a better measure of the government’s fiscal adjustment effort. In high-inflation countries, to take into account the impact of inflation on th e stock of debt, a frequent indicator is the operational deficit, which is equal to the deficit on a cash basis less the inflationary portion of interest payment. 18The current deficit is the difference between current revenue and current expenditure. It is by definition, the â€Å"government saving,† and thus, in theory, the contribution of government to investible resources and economic growth. However, since the current spending of a government may be as important for growth as capital spending, the macroeconomic meaning of this indicator should be interpreted with care. Depending on the circumstances, it may also be necessary to isolate once and for all the fiscal results from other operations, as, for instance, the sale of public assets, or a special recovery of tax arrears. 9 [Please see attached Table 2. xls] It is essential to underline that the broad objective of fiscal policy is not a specific level of deficit, per se, but a fiscal position that is sustainable in li ght of policy goals and likely resource availability. Indicators of fiscal sustainability include the ratio of debt to GDP, tax to GDP, net unfunded social security liabilities. The calculation of the deficit on an accrual basis and the assessment of the net worth of the government allows a etter assessment of liabilities and therefore their impact on sustainability (see chapter 10). However, huge movements in net worth can be caused by valuation changes in assets such as land, that the government has no immediate intention of liquidating. Hence, â€Å"net worth measures could be dangerous if used as indicators for near-term fiscal policy. â€Å"20 An assessment of fiscal vulnerability is also needed, especially in countries that benefit from short-term capital inflows.Especially relevant to Asian countries affected by the financial crisis that began in 1997; such an assessment could be based on the analysis of the maturity of government debt, the volume of usable foreign exchange reserves, etc. There is no question that the standard deficit measures may indicate a healthy fiscal situation which is in reality fragile. However, as shown by recent developments, guidelines for assessing fiscal vulnerabilities are doubtful and unclear. This question is related to the perennial and difficult issue f â€Å"early warning systems† to predict the probability of an impending fiscal or financial crisis. It may well be that such early warnings are feasible and appropriate. Among the thorny difficulties, however, there is the risk of a self-fulfilling prophecy, where the early warning itself could cause financial markets to become concerned and hence spark a crisis. Thus, on the â€Å"balance† of the debate, against any real crisis that an early warning system has predicted accurately, one should place other crises, that might not have happened were it not for the warning itself. . Preparation of a macroeconomic framework A macroeconomic framework typically includes projections of the balance of payments, the real sector (i. e. , production), the fiscal accounts, and the monetary sector. It is a tool for checking the consistency of assumptions or projections concerning economic growth, the fiscal deficit, the balance of payments, the exchange rate, inflation, credit growth and the share of the private and public sectors on external borrowing policies, etc. 21 Preparing a macroeconomic framework is always an iterative exercise.A set of â€Å"initial† objectives must be defined to establish a preliminary baseline scenario, but the final framework requires a progressive reconciliation and convergence of all objectives and targets. Considering only one target (e. g. , the fiscal deficit) in this iterative exercise risks defining other important targets as de facto residuals. â€Å"General government† (see chapter 2) should be considered when preparing the fiscal projections and defining the fiscal targets, but the fiscal tar gets should also be broken down between central and local government.In some decentralized systems, by law a fiscal target cannot be directly imposed on subnational and local government. In those cases, it is necessary to assess the feasibility of achieving it by means of the different instruments under the control of the central government (such as grants, control of borrowing). However, the constraints on running fiscal deficits are typically much tighter on subnational entities than they are on central government. The main reason is the central government’s capacity to regulate money supply. Therefore, in some federal systems (e. . , the U. S. ) many states have their own constitutionally mandated requirement of an annual balanced budget. Fiscal projections should cover the consolidated account of the general government and quasi-fiscal operations by the banking system. Future expenditures related to contingent liabilities as a result of government guarantees should be ass essed (see chapter 2). In a majority of developing countries, it is desirable to prepare â€Å"consolidated accounts of the public sector,† to identify financing requirements for the public sector as a whole.Very often, however, only the central government is included, giving a misleading fiscal picture and the temptation to â€Å"download† the fiscal deficit onto local government entities. This practice is conducive neither to sound fiscal policy nor to the subsidiarity structure appropriate to the specific country. Unfortunately, governments and international financial institutions have paid insufficient attention to this problem. The degree of sophistication of fiscal projections depends on the technical capacities within the country and the availability of data and appropriate tools. Sophisticated odels can be useful. Nevertheless, since the major objective is to set a general frame for formulating macroeconomic objectives and checking their consistency, the prepar ation of a macroeconomic framework does not necessarily require sophisticated modeling techniques. On the contrary, these techniques may give a sense of misplaced concreteness and a â€Å"forecast illusion† which may hamper the practical value of the framework. Using simple â€Å"quasi-accounting† models would already represent significant progress in many countries. 22 Such models include mainly accounting relations (e. g. GDP plus net imports equals consumption plus investment) and only a limited number of behavioral relations defined by simple ratios (e. g. , consumption, income), without resorting to econometric techniques. The models are also easier to use in discussions on fiscal policy, whereas the outputs of a sophisticated econometric model depend on the approach adopted by the modeler, and the process is necessarily more opaque. In any case, forecasting revenues should be based on detailed analyses and forecasts by individual tax rather than on the aggregate outputs of a macroeconomic model.The problems revealed by the projections (e. g. , lack of consistency between economic growth targets and monetary policy) must be discussed among the agencies involved in macroeconomic management. The preliminary baseline scenario gives the macroeconomic information needed for preparing sectoral and detailed projections, but these projections usually lead in turn to revising the baseline scenario. Such iterations should continue until overall consistency is achieved for the macroeconomic framework as a whole. The iteration process is not only necessary for sound macroeconomic and xpenditure programming, but is also an invaluable capacity-building tool, to improve the awareness and understanding of involved agencies—and therefore their cooperation in formulating a realistic budget and implementing it correctly. [Please see attached Figure 5. xls] The preparation of a macroeconomic framework should be a permanent activity. The framework needs t o be prepared at the start of each budget cycle to give adequate guidelines to the line ministries. As noted, it must then be updated throughout the further stages of budget preparation, also to take into account intervening changes in the economic environment.During budget execution, too, macroeconomic projections require frequent updating to assess the impact of exogenous changes or of possible slippage in budget execution. In addition to the baseline framework, it is important to formulate variants under different assumptions, e. g. , changes in oil prices. The risks related to unexpected changes in macroeconomic parameters must be assessed and policy responses identified in advance, albeit in very general terms, of course. The importance of good data cannot be underestimated. Without reliable information, the macroeconomic framework is literally not worth the paper it is written on.This includes the collection of economic data and the monitoring of developments in economic condi tions (both of which are generally undertaken by statistics bureaus) as well as the monitoring and consideration of changes in laws and regulations that affect revenue, expenditure, financing and other financial operations of the government. 2. Aggregate expenditure estimates Typically, a macroeconomic framework is at a very aggregate level on the expenditure side, and shows total government wages, other goods and services, interest, total transfers, and capital expenditures (by source of financing).Assumptions and underlying policy objectives therefore concern the broad economic categories of expenditures, rather than the allocation of resources among sectors. Moreover, transfers or entitlements are not reviewed in sufficient detail and assumptions on future developments are not compared with continuing commitments. Thus, when elaborating a fiscal framework on the basis of the overall macroeconomic framework, estimates of the impact of the assumptions and the aggregate fiscal targe ts on the composition of expenditure, by sector or economic category, are required to assess whether the fiscal targets are realistic and sustainable, and to etermine the conditions to meeting these targets. Therefore, the preparation of aggregate expenditure estimates could help in assessing the sustainability of expenditure policy, and thus improve the budget preparation process (notably when defining expenditure ceilings for the various sectors). These estimates could cover: (i) the forward costs of large investment projects; (ii) projections for the more important entitlements; and (iii) aggregate projections of other expenditures, by function and broad economic category.These estimates are less demanding in terms of capacity and institutional process than the formal Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) described in chapter 13, but could be a step toward the implementation of a comprehensive MTEF. Indeed, this step is mandatory if some sectoral multiyear expenditure programm ing exercise is carried out (covering only investment or a few sectors), to prevent inconsistency between the sectoral program and the macroeconomic framework, or the crowding out of expenditure in noncovered sectors or categories.Focusing only on technical issues while neglecting the fundamental question of the division of administrative responsibility inevitably produces a weak or inoperative macroeconomic framework. Some major considerations in this respect are discussed in chapter 5. 3. Consolidating the fiscal commitments a. Making the macroeconomic projections public While the iterative process leading to a realistic and consistent macroeconomic framework must remain confidential in many of its key aspects, when the framework is completed it must be made public.The legislature and the population at large have a right to know clearly the government policy objective and targets, not only to increase transparency and accountability, but also to reach a consensus within civil soci ety. While such a consensus may take additional time, and require difficult debates, it will also be an invaluable foundation for the robust and effective implementation of the policy and financial program. A good example is provided by the government of Hong Kong, China, which annexes its medium-term forecast to the annual budget speech (box 16 and annex VII). Box 16Medium-Range Forecasts: The Example of Hong Kong, China The Medium Range Forecast (MRF) is a projection of expenditure and revenue for the forecast period based on forecasting assumptions and budgetary criteria. To derive the MRF, a number of computer-based models that reflect a wide range of assumptions about the factors determining each of the components of government’s revenue and expenditure were used. As summary is shown here, a fuller description is in Annex VII. Assumptions relating to developing expenditure and revenue forecast over the mediumterm period are the following: †¢ estimated cash flow of c apital projects forecast completion dates of capital projects and their related recurrent consequences in terms of staffing and running costs †¢ estimated cash flow arising from new commitments resulting from policy initiatives †¢ the expected pattern of demand for individual services †¢ the trend in yield from individual revenue sources †¢ new revenue measures in 1998-1999 In addition to these assumptions, there are a number of criteria against which the results of forecasts are tested for overall acceptability in terms of budgetary policy: †¢ †¢ †¢ †¢ Maintain adequate reserves in the long-termExpenditure growth should not exceed the assumed trend growth in GDP Contain capital expenditure growth within overall expenditure guidelines Revenue projections reflect new measures introduced in this year’s budget To summarize, the MRF of Hong Kong is shown below: (in $Hk billion) 1998-1999 Revenue 192,680 Expenditure 182,480 Surplus 10,200 To tal public expenditure 288,890 Gross domestic product 1,497,880 Growth in GDP (nominal) 12. 9 (real) 5. 0 Public expenditure as a percentage of GDP 19. 3 Forecast years 1999-2000 2000-2001 211,390 242,900 200,740 227,830 10,650 5,070 315,830 354,060 1,690,740 1,908,420 12. 9 12. 9 5. 0 5. 0 18. 7 18. 6 2001-2002 271,330 258,570 12,760 393,980 2,154,130 12. 9 5. 0 18. 3 Source: Medium Range Forecast of Hong Kong, The Internet, August 8, 1998. In some countries, government projections are submitted to a panel of independent and respected experts to ensure their reliability, while preserving the confidentiality required on a few sensitive issues. In other countries, the projections are validated by the Auditor General (e. g. , the United Kingdom and the Canadian province of Nova Scotia23).The independence of the Auditor General adds credibility to the projections. However, any other form of participation of audit offices in the budget formulation process would be questionable. In any e vent, manipulation and alteration of forecasts would soon reduce the government's credibility and hence its influence. b. Binding fiscal targets? Several countries have laws and rules that restrict the fiscal policy of government (â€Å"fiscal rules†). 24 For example, an earlier golden rule stipulated that public borrowing must not exceed investment (thus mandating a current budget balance or surplus).In some cases, the overall budget must be balanced by law (as in subnational government in federal countries). In the European Union, the Maastricht Treaty stipulates specific fiscal convergence criteria, concerning both the ratio of the fiscal deficit to GDP and the debt/GDP ratio. (The former has been by far the more important criterion. ) One frequent criticism of such rules is that they favor creative accounting and encourage nontransparent fiscal practices. When they are effectively enforced, nondiscretionary rules can also prevent governments from adjusting their budgets t o the economic cycle. 5 Aside from the special case of European integration, one may generally consider that, in countries with fragile coalition governments, fragmented decision making, and legislative committees acting as a focus for periodic bargaining, setting up legally binding targets may be appropriate. In other countries, however, binding targets could in effect predetermine the budget before its preparation even begins. 26 In contrast with an approach based on rigid targets, other countries (e. g. , New Zealand) do not mandate specific fiscal targets, but refer to criteria such as prudent levels and reasonable degrees.It is left to the government to specify the targets in a Budget Policy Statement, which presents total revenues and expenses and projections for the next three years. This statement is published at least three months before the budget is presented to Parliament, and is reviewed by a Parliament committee but not formally voted by Parliament. 27 Box 17 The New Z ealand Fiscal Responsibility Act Enacted in 1994, the New Zealand Fiscal Responsibility Act offers a comprehensive legal framework for formulation and conducting fiscal policy in general, and for incorporating a long-term orientation in the budget process in particular.While many OECD countries have similar practices in place, the Fiscal Responsibility Act is an example of these practices being enacted into law. The primary objective of the Fiscal Responsibility Act was to entrench sound fiscal policies and make it difficult for future governments to deviate from them. There are two provisions of the Act: (i) a regime for setting fiscal objectives that focuses attention on the long term; and (ii) an extensive system of fiscal reporting with unique mechanisms to ensure its credibility and integrity. The extensive reporting required by the act serves two purposes.First, it serves to monitor the consistency of the government’s fiscal actions with its stated fiscal objectives. Se cond, it brings general transparency to government finances by mandating the disclosure of all relevant fiscal information in a timely manner. The act requires two specialized reports: the Fiscal Strategy Report and the PreElection Economic and Fiscal Update. The Fiscal Strategy Report, which is presented to Parliament along with the budget, assesses the consistency of the policy framework contained in the budget with the short-term fiscal intentions and long-term fiscal objectives outlined in the Budget Policy Statement.The Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update contains the threeyear forecasts of all key economic and fiscal variables. Both reports contain two statements of responsibility, one by the Minister of Finance and one by the Secretary to the Treasury (a civil servant). These statements of responsibility aim to clarify the roles of politicians and civil servants in producing reports and give a greater role to civil servants in producing them, thereby increasing the overal l credibility of the reports. Source: â€Å"Budgeting for the future,† OECD working paper, 1997.More important than specifying ex-ante targets and general criteria is to ensure that institutional arrangements and processes favor coherence among resource constraints, fiscal objectives, and expenditure programs. This broader issue involves the mechanisms for policy formulation, the budget preparation process, the role of the Ministry of Finance in budgeting, and the development of appropriate instruments for reviewing expenditures within a longer period than the annual budget. Box 18 A Good Macroeconomic Coordination Practice: The â€Å"Gang of Four† in Thailand The Thai system of budgeting is highly centralized.It embodies a longstanding set of arrangements, rules, and procedures that together help exert discipline on aggregate fiscal management. It grants very little autonomy to line agencies over their budgets, and imposes weak accountability on them for their perform ance. The hallmark of the Thai budgeting system is aggregate fiscal discipline. A â€Å"gang of four† interacts to control the level of spending and thus the deficit: the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), the Ministry of Finance (MOF), the Bank of Thailand (BOT), and the Bureau of the Budget (BOB) in the Prime Minister’s Office.The gang of four is responsible for formulating the macroeconomic framework that serves as the basis for the aggregate expenditure ceiling. It also determines for the most part the ministerial ceilings. Prioritization is largely a function of the gang of four. It ensures that the budgetary requests of line agencies are consistent with the objectives of the five-year development plan. The gang of four’s control over aggregate allocations to agencies and to expenditure categories implies that it exerts considerable leverage over priority setting.In Parliament, the Budget Scrutiny Committee chaired by the Minister of Fi nance evaluates the government’s proposal. Cabinet members can propose amendments to the government’s proposal but seldom make significant changes in allocations to line agencies because of limited technical capability to evaluate such proposals. Politicians can alter the allocation of line agencies. After a series of deliberations and negotiations, the committee submits the budget bill to Parliament. The Parliament almost always accepts the bill.Source: Campos and Pradhan, â€Å"Budgetary institutions and expenditure outcomes, 1996. 4. Policy formulation a. Importance of policy formulation The budget preparation process is a powerful tool for coherence. The budget is both an instrument of economic and financial management and an implicit policy statement, as it sets relative levels of spending for different programs and activities. However, policy decision making is complex and involves different actors in and outside the government.It is a technocratic illusion to e mbed all policy formulation within the budget process (as to some extent was the ambition of the PPBS; see chapter 3). However, a coherent articulation should be sought between the policy agenda (which should take into account economic and fiscal realities) and the budget (which should accurately reflect the government's policy priorities). The budget process should both take into account policies already formulated and be the main instrument for making these policies explicit and â€Å"operational. However, policies must be defined outside the pressure of the budget process. Making policy through the budget would lead to a focus only on short-term issues and thus to bad policy, since the policy debate would be invariably dominated by immediate financial considerations. (This is frequently the unfortunate outcome in developing countries with weak capacity faced with financial difficulties. ) In earlier times, medium-term development plans were intended as the instrument for setting up government strategy. However, these plans were rigid, invariant, and usually out of sync with financial realities.Paradoxically, therefore, they indirectly led in practice to the same dominance of short-term financial considerations. Organizational arrangements are discussed in chapter 5. b. The policy-budget link A bridge between the policy making process and the budget process is essential to make policy a breathing reality rather than a statement of wishes. For this purpose at least two clear rules must be established. 28 The resource implications of a policy change should be identified, even if very roughly, before a policy decision is taken.Any entity proposing new policies must quantify their effects on public expenditure, including the impact both on its own spending and on the spending of other government departments. The Ministry of Finance should be consulted in good time about all proposals involving expenditure before they go into ministerial committee or to the cent er of the government and certainly before any public announcements are made. Within the budget formulation process, close cooperation between the Ministry of Finance and the center of government is required, at both the political and the technical level.The role of the center is to ensure that the budget is prepared along the lines defined; to arbitrate or smooth over conflicts between the Ministry of Finance and line ministries; and to assure that the relevant stakeholders are appropriately involved in the budget process. (This is a major challenge, which can only be mentioned here but requires care and commitment on a sustained basis. ) An interministerial committee is needed to tackle crosscutting issues and review especially sensitive issues.And, most importantly, each entity involved in the budget process must perform its own role in a responsible fashion, and be given the means and capacity to do so. c. Reaching out: The importance of listening Consultations can strengthen leg islative scrutiny of government strategy and the budget. Legislative hearings through committees and subcommittees, particularly outside the pressure environment of the annual budget, can provide an effective mechanism for consulting widely on the appropriateness of policies (issues related to the role of the legislature are discussed in chapter 5) .The government should try to get feedb

The Lost Symbol Chapter 79-82

CHAPTER 79 Eight miles due north of Alexandria, Virginia, Robert Langdon and Katherine Solomon strode calmly across a wide expanse of frost-covered lawn. â€Å"You should be an actress,† Langdon said, still impressed by Katherine's quick thinking and improvisational skills. â€Å"You weren't half bad yourself.† She gave him a smile. At first, Langdon had been mystified by Katherine's abrupt antics in the taxi. Without warning, she had suddenly demanded they go to Freedom Plaza based on some revelation about a Jewish star and the Great Seal of the United States. She drew a well-known conspiracy-theory image on a dollar bill and then insisted Langdon look closely where she was pointing. Finally, Langdon realized that Katherine was pointing not at the dollar bill but at a tiny indicator bulb on the back of the driver's seat. The bulb was so covered with grime that he had not even noticed it. As he leaned forward, however, he could see that the bulb was illuminated, emitting a dull red glow. He could also see the two faint words directly beneath the lit bulb. –INTERCOM ON– Startled, Langdon glanced back at Katherine, whose frantic eyes were urging him to look into the front seat. He obeyed, stealing a discreet glance through the divider. The cabby's cell phone was on the dash, wide open, illuminated, facing the intercom speaker. An instant later, Langdon understood Katherine's actions. They know we're in this cab . . . they've been listening to us. Langdon had no idea how much time he and Katherine had until their taxi was stopped and surrounded, but he knew they had to act fast. Instantly, he'd begun playing along, realizing that Katherine's desire to go to Freedom Plaza had nothing to do with the pyramid but rather with its being a large subway station–Metro Center–from which they could take the Red, Blue, or Orange lines in any of six different directions. They jumped out of the taxi at Freedom Plaza, and Langdon took over, doing some improvising of his own, leaving a trail to the Masonic Memorial in Alexandria before he and Katherine ran down into the subway station, dashing past the Blue Line platforms and continuing on to the Red Line, where they caught a train in the opposite direction. Traveling six stops northbound to Tenleytown, they emerged all alone into a quiet, upscale neighborhood. Their destination, the tallest structure for miles, was immediately visible on the horizon, just off Massachusetts Avenue on a vast expanse of manicured lawn. Now â€Å"off the grid,† as Katherine called it, the two of them walked across the damp grass. On their right was a medieval-style garden, famous for its ancient rosebushes and Shadow House gazebo. They moved past the garden, directly toward the magnificent building to which they had been summoned. A refuge containing ten stones from Mount Sinai, one from heaven itself, and one with the visage of Luke's dark father. â€Å"I've never been here at night,† Katherine said, gazing up at the brightly lit towers. â€Å"It's spectacular.† Langdon agreed, having forgotten how impressive this place truly was. This neo-Gothic masterpiece stood at the north end of Embassy Row. He hadn't been here for years, not since writing a piece about it for a kids' magazine in hopes of generating some excitement among young Americans to come see this amazing landmark. His article–â€Å"Moses, Moon Rocks, and Star Wars†Ã¢â‚¬â€œhad been part of the tourist literature for years. Washington National Cathedral, Langdon thought, feeling an unexpected anticipation at being back after all these years. Where better to ask about One True God? â€Å"This cathedral really has ten stones from Mount Sinai?† Katherine asked, gazing up at the twin bell towers. Langdon nodded. â€Å"Near the main altar. They symbolize the Ten Commandments given to Moses on Mount Sinai.† â€Å"And there's a lunar rock?† A rock from heaven itself. â€Å"Yes. One of the stained-glass windows is called the Space Window and has a fragment of moon rock embedded in it.† â€Å"Okay, but you can't be serious about the last thing.† Katherine glanced over, her pretty eyes flashing skepticism. â€Å"A statue of . . . Darth Vader?† Langdon chuckled. â€Å"Luke Skywalker's dark father? Absolutely. Vader is one of the National Cathedral's most popular grotesques.† He pointed high into the west towers. â€Å"Tough to see him at night, but he's there.† â€Å"What in the world is Darth Vader doing on Washington National Cathedral?† â€Å"A contest for kids to carve a gargoyle that depicted the face of evil. Darth won.† They reached the grand staircase to the main entrance, which was set back in an eighty-foot archway beneath a breathtaking rose window. As they began climbing, Langdon's mind shifted to the mysterious stranger who had called him. No names, please . . . Tell me, have you successfully protected the map that was entrusted to you? Langdon's shoulder ached from carrying the heavy stone pyramid, and he was looking forward to setting it down. Sanctuary and answers. As they approached the top of the stairs, they were met with an imposing pair of wooden doors. â€Å"Do we just knock?† Katherine asked. Langdon had been wondering the same thing, except that now one of the doors was creaking open. â€Å"Who's there?† a frail voice said. The face of a withered old man appeared in the doorway. He wore priest's robes and a blank stare. His eyes were opaque and white, clouded with cataracts. â€Å"My name is Robert Langdon,† he replied. â€Å"Katherine Solomon and I are seeking sanctuary.† The blind man exhaled in relief. â€Å"Thank God. I've been expecting you.† CHAPTER 80 Warren Bellamy felt a sudden ray of hope. Inside the Jungle, Director Sato had just received a phone call from a field agent and had immediately flown into a tirade. â€Å"Well, you damn well better find them!† she shouted into her phone. â€Å"We're running out of time!† She had hung up and was now stalking back and forth in front of Bellamy as if trying to decide what to do next. Finally, she stopped directly in front of him and turned. â€Å"Mr. Bellamy, I'm going to ask you this once, and only once.† She stared deep into his eyes. â€Å"Yes or no–do you have any idea where Robert Langdon might have gone?† Bellamy had more than a good idea, but he shook his head. â€Å"No.† Sato's piercing gaze had never left his eyes. â€Å"Unfortunately, part of my job is to know when people are lying.† Bellamy averted his eyes. â€Å"Sorry, I can't help you.† â€Å"Architect Bellamy,† Sato said, â€Å"tonight just after seven P.M., you were having dinner in a restaurant outside the city when you received a phone call from a man who told you he had kidnapped Peter Solomon.† Bellamy felt an instant chill and returned his eyes to hers. How could you possibly know that?! â€Å"The man,† Sato continued, â€Å"told you that he had sent Robert Langdon to the Capitol Building and given Langdon a task to complete . . . a task that required your help. He warned that if Langdon failed in this task, your friend Peter Solomon would die. Panicked, you called all of Peter's numbers but failed to reach him. Understandably, you then raced to the Capitol.† Bellamy could not imagine how Sato knew about this phone call. â€Å"As you fled the Capitol,† Sato said behind the smoldering tip of her cigarette, â€Å"you sent a text message to Solomon's kidnapper, assuring him that you and Langdon had been successful in obtaining the Masonic Pyramid.† Where is she getting her information? Bellamy wondered. Not even Langdon knows I sent that text message. Immediately after entering the tunnel to the Library of Congress, Bellamy had stepped into the electrical room to plug in the construction lighting. In the privacy of that moment, he had decided to send a quick text message to Solomon's captor, telling him about Sato's involvement, but reassuring him that he– Bellamy–and Langdon had obtained the Masonic Pyramid and would indeed cooperate with his demands. It was a lie, of course, but Bellamy hoped the reassurance might buy time, both for Peter Solomon and also to hide the pyramid. â€Å"Who told you I sent a text?† Bellamy demanded. Sato tossed Bellamy's cell phone on the bench next to him. â€Å"Hardly rocket science.† Bellamy now remembered his phone and keys had been taken from him by the agents who captured him. â€Å"As for the rest of my inside information,† Sato said, â€Å"the Patriot Act gives me the right to place a wiretap on the phone of anyone I consider a viable threat to national security. I consider Peter Solomon to be such a threat, and last night I took action.† Bellamy could barely get his mind around what she was telling him. â€Å"You're tapping Peter Solomon's phone?† â€Å"Yes. This is how I knew the kidnapper called you at the restaurant. You called Peter's cell phone and left an anxious message explaining what had just happened.† Bellamy realized she was right. â€Å"We had also intercepted a call from Robert Langdon, who was in the Capitol Building, deeply confused to learn he had been tricked into coming there. I went to the Capitol at once, arriving before you because I was closer. As for how I knew to check the X-ray of Langdon's bag . . . in light of my realization that Langdon was involved in all of this, I had my staff reexamine a seemingly innocuous early-morning call between Langdon and Peter Solomon's cell phone, in which the kidnapper, posing as Solomon's assistant, persuaded Langdon to come for a lecture and also to bring a small package that Peter had entrusted to him. When Langdon was not forthcoming with me about the package he was carrying, I requested the X-ray of his bag.† Bellamy could barely think. Admittedly, everything Sato was saying was feasible, and yet something was not adding up. â€Å"But . . . how could you possibly think Peter Solomon is a threat to national security?† â€Å"Believe me, Peter Solomon is a serious national-security threat,† she snapped. â€Å"And frankly, Mr. Bellamy, so are you.† Bellamy sat bolt upright, the handcuffs chafing against his wrists. â€Å"I beg your pardon?!† She forced a smile. â€Å"You Masons play a risky game. You keep a very, very dangerous secret.† Is she talking about the Ancient Mysteries? â€Å"Thankfully, you've always done a good job of keeping your secrets hidden. Unfortunately, recently you've been careless, and tonight, your most dangerous secret is about to be unveiled to the world. And unless we can stop that from happening, I assure you the results will be catastrophic.† Bellamy stared in bewilderment. â€Å"If you had not attacked me,† Sato said, â€Å"you would have realized that you and I are on the same team.† The same team. The words sparked in Bellamy an idea that seemed almost impossible to fathom. Is Sato a member of Eastern Star? The Order of the Eastern Star–often considered a sister organization to the Masons–embraced a similar mystical philosophy of benevolence, secret wisdom, and spiritual open-mindedness. The same team? I'm in handcuffs! She's tapping Peter's phone! â€Å"You will help me stop this man,† Sato said. â€Å"He has the potential to bring about a cataclysm from which this country might not recover.† Her face was like stone. â€Å"Then why aren't you tracking him?† Sato looked incredulous. â€Å"Do you think I'm not trying? My trace on Solomon's cell phone went dead before we got a location. His other number appears to be a disposable phone–which is almost impossible to track. The private-jet company told us that Langdon's flight was booked by Solomon's assistant, on Solomon's cell phone, with Solomon's Marquis Jet card. There is no trail. Not that it matters anyway. Even if we find out exactly where he is, I can't possibly risk moving in and trying to grab him.† â€Å"Why not?!† â€Å"I'd prefer not to share that, as the information is classified,† Sato said, patience clearly waning. â€Å"I am asking you to trust me on this.† â€Å"Well, I don't!† Sato's eyes were like ice. She turned suddenly and shouted across the Jungle. â€Å"Agent Hartmann! The briefcase, please.† Bellamy heard the hiss of the electronic door, and an agent strode into the Jungle. He was carrying a sleek titanium briefcase, which he set on the ground beside the OS director. â€Å"Leave us,† Sato said. As the agent departed, the door hissed again, and then everything fell silent. Sato picked up the metal case, laid it across her lap, and popped the clasps. Then she raised her eyes slowly to Bellamy. â€Å"I did not want to do this, but our time is running out, and you've left me no choice.† Bellamy eyed the strange briefcase and felt a swell of fear. Is she going to torture me? He strained at his cuffs again. â€Å"What's in that case?!† Sato smiled grimly. â€Å"Something that will persuade you to see things my way. I guarantee it.† CHAPTER 81 The subterranean space in which Mal'akh performed the Art was ingeniously hidden. His home's basement, to those who entered, appeared quite normal–a typical cellar with boiler, fuse box, woodpile, and a hodgepodge of storage. This visible cellar, however, was only a portion of Mal'akh's underground space. A sizable area had been walled off for his clandestine practices. Mal'akh's private work space was a suite of small rooms, each with a specialized purpose. The area's sole entrance was a steep ramp secretly accessible through his living room, making the area's discovery virtually impossible. Tonight, as Mal'akh descended the ramp, the tattooed sigils and signs on his flesh seemed to come alive in the cerulean glow of his basement's specialized lighting. Moving into the bluish haze, he walked past several closed doors and headed directly for the largest room at the end of the corridor. The â€Å"sanctum sanctorum,† as Mal'akh liked to call it, was a perfect twelve-foot square. Twelve are the signs of the zodiac. Twelve are the hours of the day. Twelve are the gates of heaven. In the center of the chamber was a stone table, a seven-by-seven square. Seven are the seals of Revelation. Seven are the steps of the Temple. Centered over the table hung a carefully calibrated light source that cycled through a spectrum of preordained colors, completing its cycle every six hours in accordance with the sacred Table of Planetary Hours. The hour of Yanor is blue. The hour of Nasnia is red. The hour of Salam is white. Now was the hour of Caerra, meaning the light in the room had modulated to a soft purplish hue. Wearing only a silken loincloth wrapped around his buttocks and neutered sex organ, Mal'akh began his preparations. He carefully combined the suffumigation chemicals that he would later ignite to sanctify the air. Then he folded the virgin silk robe that he would eventually don in place of his loincloth. And finally, he purified a flask of water for the anointing of his offering. When he was done, he placed all of these prepared ingredients on a side table. Next he went to a shelf and retrieved a small ivory box, which he carried to the side table and placed with the other items. Although he was not yet ready to use it, he could not resist opening the lid and admiring this treasure. The knife. Inside the ivory box, nestled in a cradle of black velvet, shone the sacrificial knife that Mal'akh had been saving for tonight. He had purchased it for $1.6 million on the Middle Eastern antiquities black market last year. The most famous knife in history. Unimaginably old and believed lost, this precious blade was made of iron, attached to a bone handle. Over the ages, it had been in the possession of countless powerful individuals. In recent decades, however, it had disappeared, languishing in a secret private collection. Mal'akh had gone to enormous lengths to obtain it. The knife, he suspected, had not drawn blood for decades . . . possibly centuries. Tonight, this blade would again taste the power of the sacrifice for which it was honed. Mal'akh gently lifted the knife from its cushioned compartment and reverently polished the blade with a silk cloth soaked in purified water. His skills had progressed greatly since his first rudimentary experiments in New York. The dark Art that Mal'akh practiced had been known by many names in many languages, but by any name, it was a precise science. This primeval technology had once held the key to the portals of power, but it had been banished long ago, relegated to the shadows of occultism and magic. Those few who still practiced this Art were considered madmen, but Mal'akh knew better. This is not work for those with dull faculties. The ancient dark Art, like modern science, was a discipline involving precise formulas, specific ingredients, and meticulous timing. This Art was not the impotent black magic of today, often practiced halfheartedly by curious souls. This Art, like nuclear physics, had the potential to unleash enormous power. The warnings were dire: The unskilled practitioner runs the risk of being struck by a reflux current and destroyed. Mal'akh finished admiring the sacred blade and turned his attention to a lone sheet of thick vellum lying on the table before him. He had made this vellum himself from the skin of a baby lamb. As was the protocol, the lamb was pure, having not yet reached sexual maturity. Beside the vellum was a quill pen he had made from the feather of a crow, a silver saucer, and three glimmering candles arranged around a solid-brass bowl. The bowl contained one inch of thick crimson liquid. The liquid was Peter Solomon's blood. Blood is the tincture of eternity. Mal'akh picked up the quill pen, placed his left hand on the vellum, and dipping the quill tip in the blood, he carefully traced the outline of his open palm. When he was done, he added the five symbols of the Ancient Mysteries, one on each fingertip of the drawing. The crown . . . to represent the king I shall become. The star . . . to represent the heavens which have ordained my destiny. The sun . . . to represent the illumination of my soul. The lantern . . . to represent the feeble light of human understanding. And the key . . . to represent the missing piece, that which tonight I shall at last possess. Mal'akh completed his blood tracing and held up the vellum, admiring his work in the light of the three candles. He waited until the blood was dry and then folded the thick vellum three times. While chanting an ethereal ancient incantation, Mal'akh touched the vellum to the third candle, and it burst into flames. He set the flaming vellum on the silver saucer and let it burn. As it did, the carbon in the animal skin dissolved to a powdery black char. When the flame went out, Mal'akh carefully tapped the ashes into the brass bowl of blood. Then he stirred the mixture with the crow's feather. The liquid turned a deeper crimson, nearly black. Holding the bowl in both palms, Mal'akh raised it over his head and gave thanks, intoning the blood eukharistos of the ancients. Then he carefully poured the blackened mixture into a glass vial and corked it. This would be the ink with which Mal'akh would inscribe the untattooed flesh atop his head and complete his masterpiece. CHAPTER 82 Washington National Cathedral is the sixth-largest cathedral in the world and soars higher than a thirty-story skyscraper. Embellished with over two hundred stained-glass windows, a fifty- three-bell carillon, and a 10,647-pipe organ, this Gothic masterpiece can accommodate more than three thousand worshippers. Tonight, however, the great cathedral was deserted. Reverend Colin Galloway–dean of the cathedral–looked like he had been alive forever. Stooped and withered, he wore a simple black cassock and shuffled blindly ahead without a word. Langdon and Katherine followed in silence through the darkness of the four-hundred-foot- long nave's central aisle, which was curved ever so slightly to the left to create a softening optical illusion. When they reached the Great Crossing, the dean guided them through the rood screen–the symbolic divider between the public area and the sanctuary beyond. The scent of frankincense hung in the air of the chancel. This sacred space was dark, illuminated only by indirect reflections in the foliated vaults overhead. Flags of the fifty states hung above the quire, which was ornately appointed with several carved reredos depicting biblical events. Dean Galloway continued on, apparently knowing this walk by heart. For a moment, Langdon thought they were headed straight for the high altar, where the ten stones from Mount Sinai were embedded, but the old dean finally turned left and groped his way through a discreetly hidden door that led into an administrative annex. They moved down a short hallway to an office door bearing a brass nameplate: THE REVEREND DR. COLIN GALLOWAY CATHEDRAL DEAN Galloway opened the door and turned on the lights, apparently accustomed to remembering this courtesy for his guests. He ushered them in and closed the door. The dean's office was small but elegant, with high bookshelves, a desk, a carved armoire, and a private bathroom. On the walls hung sixteenth-century tapestries and several religious paintings. The old dean motioned to the two leather chairs directly opposite his desk. Langdon sat with Katherine and felt grateful finally to set his heavy shoulder bag on the floor at his feet. Sanctuary and answers, Langdon thought, settling into the comfortable chair. The aged man shuffled around behind his desk and eased himself down into his high-backed chair. Then, with a weary sigh, he raised his head, staring blankly out at them through clouded eyes. When he spoke, his voice was unexpectedly clear and strong. â€Å"I realize we have never met,† the old man said, â€Å"and yet I feel I know you both.† He took out a handkerchief and dabbed his mouth. â€Å"Professor Langdon, I am familiar with your writings, including the clever piece you did on the symbolism of this cathedral. And, Ms. Solomon, your brother, Peter, and I have been Masonic brothers for many years now.† â€Å"Peter is in terrible trouble,† Katherine said. â€Å"So I have been told.† The old man sighed. â€Å"And I will do everything in my power to help you.† Langdon saw no Masonic ring on the dean's finger, and yet he knew many Masons, especially those within the clergy, chose not to advertise their affiliation. As they began to talk, it became clear that Dean Galloway already knew some of the night's events from Warren Bellamy's phone message. As Langdon and Katherine filled him in on the rest, the dean looked more and more troubled. â€Å"And this man who has taken our beloved Peter,† the dean said, â€Å"he is insisting you decipher the pyramid in exchange for Peter's life?† â€Å"Yes,† Langdon said. â€Å"He thinks it's a map that will lead him to the hiding place of the Ancient Mysteries.† The dean turned his eerie, opaque eyes toward Langdon. â€Å"My ears tell me you do not believe in such things.† Langdon did not want to waste time going down this road. â€Å"It doesn't matter what I believe. We need to help Peter. Unfortunately, when we deciphered the pyramid, it pointed nowhere.† The old man sat straighter. â€Å"You've deciphered the pyramid?† Katherine interceded now, quickly explaining that despite Bellamy's warnings and her brother's request that Langdon not unwrap the package, she had done so, feeling her first priority was to help her brother however she could. She told the dean about the golden capstone, Albrecht Durer's magic square, and how it decrypted the sixteen-letter Masonic cipher into the phrase Jeova Sanctus Unus. â€Å"That's all it says?† the dean asked. â€Å"One True God?† â€Å"Yes, sir,† Langdon replied. â€Å"Apparently the pyramid is more of a metaphorical map than a geographic one.† The dean held out his hands. â€Å"Let me feel it.† Langdon unzipped his bag and pulled out the pyramid, which he carefully hoisted up on the desk, setting it directly in front of the reverend. Langdon and Katherine watched as the old man's frail hands examined every inch of the stone– the engraved side, the smooth base, and the truncated top. When he was finished, he held out his hands again. â€Å"And the capstone?† Langdon retrieved the small stone box, set it on the desk, and opened the lid. Then he removed the capstone and placed it into the old man's waiting hands. The dean performed a similar examination, feeling every inch, pausing on the capstone's engraving, apparently having some trouble reading the small, elegantly inscribed text. â€Å"`The secret hides within The Order,'† Langdon offered. â€Å"And the words the and order are capitalized.† The old man's face was expressionless as he positioned the capstone on top of the pyramid and aligned it by sense of touch. He seemed to pause a moment, as if in prayer, and reverently ran his palms over the complete pyramid several times. Then he reached out and located the cube- shaped box, taking it in his hands, feeling it carefully, his fingers probing inside and out. When he was done, he set down the box and leaned back in his chair. â€Å"So tell me,† he demanded, his voice suddenly stern. â€Å"Why have you come to me?† The question took Langdon off guard. â€Å"We came, sir, because you told us to. And Mr. Bellamy said we should trust you.† â€Å"And yet you did not trust him?† â€Å"I'm sorry?† The dean's white eyes stared directly through Langdon. â€Å"The package containing the capstone was sealed. Mr. Bellamy told you not to open it, and yet you did. In addition, Peter Solomon himself told you not to open it. And yet you did.† â€Å"Sir,† Katherine intervened, â€Å"we were trying to help my brother. The man who has him demanded we decipher–â€Å" â€Å"I can appreciate that,† the dean declared, â€Å"and yet what have you achieved by opening the package? Nothing. Peter's captor is looking for a location, and he will not be satisfied with the answer of Jeova Sanctus Unus.† â€Å"I agree,† Langdon said, â€Å"but unfortunately that's all the pyramid says. As I mentioned, the map seems to be more figurative than–â€Å" â€Å"You're mistaken, Professor,† the dean said. â€Å"The Masonic Pyramid is a real map. It points to a real location. You do not understand that, because you have not yet deciphered the pyramid fully. Not even close.† Langdon and Katherine exchanged startled looks. The dean laid his hands back on the pyramid, almost caressing it. â€Å"This map, like the Ancient Mysteries themselves, has many layers of meaning. Its true secret remains veiled from you.† â€Å"Dean Galloway,† Langdon said, â€Å"we've been over every inch of the pyramid and capstone, and there's nothing else to see.† â€Å"Not in its current state, no. But objects change.† â€Å"Sir?† â€Å"Professor, as you know, the promise of this pyramid is one of miraculous transformative power. Legend holds that this pyramid can change its shape . . . alter its physical form to reveal its secrets. Like the famed stone that released Excalibur into the hands of King Arthur, the Masonic Pyramid can transform itself if it so chooses . . . and reveal its secret to the worthy.† Langdon now sensed that the old man's advanced years had perhaps robbed him of his faculties. â€Å"I'm sorry, sir. Are you saying this pyramid can undergo a literal physical transformation?† â€Å"Professor, if I were to reach out with my hand and transform this pyramid right before your eyes, would you believe what you had witnessed?† Langdon had no idea how to respond. â€Å"I suppose I would have no choice.† â€Å"Very well, then. In a moment, I shall do exactly that.† He dabbed his mouth again. â€Å"Let me remind you that there was an era when even the brightest minds perceived the earth as flat. For if the earth were round, then surely the oceans would spill off. Imagine how they would have mocked you if you proclaimed, `Not only is the world a sphere, but there is an invisible, mystical force that holds everything to its surface'!† â€Å"There's a difference,† Langdon said, â€Å"between the existence of gravity . . . and the ability to transform objects with a touch of your hand.† â€Å"Is there? Is it not possible that we are still living in the Dark Ages, still mocking the suggestion of `mystical' forces that we cannot see or comprehend. History, if it has taught us anything at all, has taught us that the strange ideas we deride today will one day be our celebrated truths. I claim I can transform this pyramid with a touch of my finger, and you question my sanity. I would expect more from an historian. History is replete with great minds who have all proclaimed the same thing . . . great minds who have all insisted that man possesses mystical abilities of which he is unaware.† Langdon knew the dean was correct. The famous Hermetic aphorism–Know ye not that ye are gods?–was one of the pillars of the Ancient Mysteries. As above, so below . . . Man created in God's image . . . Apotheosis. This persistent message of man's own divinity–of his hidden potential–was the recurring theme in the ancient texts of countless traditions. Even the Holy Bible cried out in Psalms 82:6: Ye are gods! â€Å"Professor,† the old man said, â€Å"I realize that you, like many educated people, live trapped between worlds–one foot in the spiritual, one foot in the physical. Your heart yearns to believe . . . but your intellect refuses to permit it. As an academic, you would be wise to learn from the great minds of history.† He paused and cleared his throat. â€Å"If I'm remembering correctly, one of the greatest minds ever to live proclaimed: `That which is impenetrable to us really exists. Behind the secrets of nature remains something subtle, intangible, and inexplicable. Veneration for this force beyond anything that we can comprehend is my religion.' â€Å" â€Å"Who said that?† Langdon said. â€Å"Gandhi?† â€Å"No,† Katherine interjected. â€Å"Albert Einstein.† Katherine Solomon had read every word Einstein had ever written and was struck by his profound respect for the mystical, as well as his predictions that the masses would one day feel the same. The religion of the future, Einstein had predicted, will be a cosmic religion. It will transcend personal God and avoid dogma and theology. Robert Langdon appeared to be struggling with the idea. Katherine could sense his rising frustration with the old Episcopal priest, and she understood. After all, they had traveled here for answers, and they had found instead a blind man who claimed he could transform objects with a touch of his hands. Even so, the old man's overt passion for mystical forces reminded Katherine of her brother. â€Å"Father Galloway,† Katherine said, â€Å"Peter is in trouble. The CIA is chasing us. And Warren Bellamy sent us to you for help. I don't know what this pyramid says or where it points, but if deciphering it means that we can help Peter, we need to do that. Mr. Bellamy may have preferred to sacrifice my brother's life to hide this pyramid, but my family has experienced nothing but pain because of it. Whatever secret it may hold, it ends tonight.† â€Å"You are correct,† the old man replied, his tone dire. â€Å"It will all end tonight. You've guaranteed that.† He sighed. â€Å"Ms. Solomon, when you broke the seal on that box, you set in motion a series of events from which there will be no return. There are forces at work tonight that you do not yet comprehend. There is no turning back.† Katherine stared dumbfounded at the reverend. There was something apocalyptic about his tone, as if he were referring to the Seven Seals of Revelation or Pandora's box. â€Å"Respectfully, sir,† Langdon interceded, â€Å"I can't imagine how a stone pyramid could set in motion anything at all.† â€Å"Of course you can't, Professor.† The old man stared blindly through him. â€Å"You do not yet have eyes to see.†